WNO: Gordon Ryan vs Ronaldo Junior - UPDATED
WNO is a submission-only grappling event taking place on *Friday, July 31, 2020, in Austin, TX, and streamed live on FloGrappling.
Garry Tonon (-285) vs Dante Leon (+225)
- NoGi Sub only
- 15 minutes
- Judges decision using F2W scoring if no winner in regulation
For the main event, Garry Tonon is back competing under F2W rules. This time against Dante Leon. Garry is a black belt under Renzo Gracie/DDS and is teammates with Gordon Ryan and Craig Jones. Dante is a GF Team black belt and ADCC Veteran as well as F2W Veteran.
This is a rematch of their ADCC match-up in 2019 where Garry won by heel hook. The rules in this match are different but the submission-only format should favor Garry. He has legendary defense and will be very hard to submit. Not counting the loss to teammate Gordon Ryan at ADCC, the last time Garry was legitimately submitted was in 2017 by a man three weight classes above him, Antonio Carlos Jr. Dante does have very good submissions and a very good guillotine choke. More importantly, he seems to be improving every time we see him and should be the stronger and more physical competitor.
Dante has shown a weakness to leg lock attacks in the past and Garry is one of the top leg lockers in the world. It will be a tough match for Dante but I think that if he can put it all together, he can surprise Garry. Garry’s unpredictably style and Dante’s aggressiveness should make for a very exciting match. I predict Garry to win by submission. I give Garry Tonon an implied probability of 74% (-285) and Dante Leon an implied probability of 31% (+225) to win.
Garry Tonon (-285) / 74% implied probability to win
Dante Leon (+225) / 31% implied probability to win
Prediction: Garry Tonon by submission
Vagner Rocha(-185) vs Ronaldo Junior (+150)
- NoGi Sub only
- 15 minutes
- Judges decision using F2W scoring if no winner in regulation
Vagner Rocha steps in for Gordon Ryan who is out with COVID-19 to face Ronaldo Junior. Vagner is a black belt and former MMA fighter from Fight Sports Team. Ronaldo is an ATOS black belt who won the 2019 NOGI World Championships at brown belt.
This match-up is much better for Ronaldo and he goes from a long-shot underdog to a live underdog in my opinion. Vagner is the rightful favorite here as the NOGI specialist who is proven at the highest levels. Vagner is an ADCC silver medalist and one of the most well-rounded competitors in the game. It’s hard to point to any real weakness in Vagner’s game. Ronaldo has a lot of questions to answer here and I expect him to come out aggressive with his trademark side to side movement if he can get on top. It will be difficult since I don’t see Vagner giving up the top position but Ronaldo is only 23 years old and can be making large improvements. Vagner is 38 years old but showing no signs of slowing down.
I predict Vagner to win by judges’ decision. I give Vagner Rocha an implied probability of 65% (-185) and Ronaldo Junior an implied probability of 40% (+150) to win. Remember also that Vagner is stepping in on very short notice. This should be an exciting match and Ronaldo is live here. He has been preparing for the #1 ranked NOGI grappler Gordon Ryan and we should see the best version of him yet.
Vager Rocha (-185) / 65% implied probability to win
Ronaldo Junior (+150) / 40% implied probability to win
Prediction: Vagner Rocha by judges decision
Roberto “Cyborg” Abreu (-125) vs Lucas “Hulk” Barbosa (-105)
- NOGI Sub only
- 15 minutes
- Judges decision using F2W scoring if no winner in regulation
Cyborg steps in for Craig Jones who is out with COVID-19 to face Hulk. Both men are black belts and ADCC veterans. Cyborg is the current #9 ranked NOGI grappler in the world and Hulk is the current #14 ranked NOGI grappler in the world.
Even though Cyborg does have 2 victories over Hulk, they were under vastly different rulesets and 1 victory was in the GI. So we can really only say that Cyborg has 1 NOGI win over Hulk under a points ruleset. This will be the first time they face each other in a submission-only format. Hulk is the younger and more explosive fighter but Cyborg seems to have unlocked the fountain of youth and will have a size and likely an overall strength advantage. Both of these guys are physical specimens as their nicknames imply.
Cyborg is stepping in on very short notice here but he always seems to be in shape and is always training.I predict Cyborg to win by judges’ decision. Both men are very hard to submit and I don’t see them tapping inside of 15 minutes. I give Roberto “Cyborg” Abreu an implied probability of 56% and Lucas “Hulk” Barbosa an implied probability of 51% to win. On paper, this is the most evenly matched fight on the main card.
Roberto “Cyborg” Abreu (-125) / 56% implied probability to win
Lucas “Hulk” Barbosa (-105) / 51% implied probability to win
Prediction: Roberto “Cyborg” Abreu by judges decision
Elisabeth Clay (-300) vs Maggie Grindatti (+250)
- NoGi Sub only
- 8 minutes
- Judges decision using F2W scoring if no winner in regulation
The women’s headliner is between Elisabeth Clay of Ares JJ taking on Maggie Grindatti of Fight Sports Team in an 8 minute NOGI match.
Elisabeth Clay upset top women’s competitor Luiza Monteiro at F2W147 and has been looking sharp in NOGI competition recently. Still a brown belt, she takes on Maggie Grindatti who is a new black belt under Roberto Cyborg Abreu.
I favor Clay in the match-up but Grindatti will likely be the best athlete Clay has ever faced in competition. A former D1 athlete, Grindatti has the size and strength to match Clay but she will have to avoid Clay’s leg lock attacks. I think Clay gets the job done here and I predict Elisabeth Clay to win by submission. I give Elisabeth Clay an implied probability of 75% (-300) and Maggie Grindatti an implied probability of 29% to win.
Elisabeth Clay (-300) / 75% implied probability to win
Maggie Grindatti (+250) / 29% implied probability to win
Prediction: Elisabeth Clay by submission