Fight2Win 153 Betting Analysis

Fight2Win 153 is a submission-only grappling event taking place on Friday, September 25, 2020, in Dallas, TX, and streamed live on FloGrappling. 

Main Card starts at 9 PM EST. 

Date: Friday, September 25, 2020

Location: Dallas, TX (Held at Gilley’s Complex and streamed live on FloGrappling)

Start Time: 9PM EST (these matches will start after 9PM EST)

Betting Cut-off Time: 8PM EST

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Main Event:

Gianni Grippo (-175) vs Samuel Nagai (+150)

The main event features Gianni Grippo of Marcelo Garcia Academy taking on Samuel Nagai in a 155lbs GI match. Gianni has not been as active in competition recently but he has always been a top-tier GI competitor. Samuel Nagai is a new black belt who is still looking for experience at the highest level. The F2W rules favor Nagai but Gianni has so much experience at the highest levels and is a reliable competitor when not facing people who greatly outweigh him. I don’t see Nagai being able to mount much of an offense against Gianni’s guard. Gianni should take this one by attempting more submissions from the bottom position.

Gianni Grippo -175 / 1.57 / 64% implied probability to win 

Samuel Nagai +150 / 2.5 / 40% implied probability to win 

Prediction: Gianni Grippo by judges decision.

Co-Main:

Junny Ocasio (-310) vs Marcelo Cohen (+235)

The co-main event features Junny Ocasio of Unity Jiu-Jitsu taking on Marcelo Cohen for the Bantamweight Black Belt NOGI Title. Junny is the more active competitor and his guard passing and leg lock skills should be able to overcome Marcelo Cohen who is an experienced NOGI competitor but has not had the high-level experience Junny has in recent years. Junny should get it done in regulation. I can see him finishing with a leg lock in regulation.

Junny Ocasio -310 / 1.32 / 76% implied probability to win 

Marcelo Cohen +235 / 3.35 / 30% implied probability to win 

Prediction: Junny Ocasio by submission.

Talita Alencar (-180) vs Heather Raftery (+140)

In a championship match for the (W)Flyweight Black Belt NOGI Title, Talita Alencar of Alliance takes on Heather Raftery of ATOS. In 2019 at the NOGI Worlds, these two faced each other under a points-based ruleset where Talita won by points. Heather is a strong competitor but I think Talita has the experience and the F2W ruleset favors Talita. I expect her to get the win by judges’ decision.

Talita Alencar -180 / 1.56 / 64% implied probability to win 

Heather Raftery +140 / 2.4 / 42% implied probability to win 

Prediction: Talita Alencar by judges’ decision.