Drawing the Line: Fight2Win 151 - Betting Analysis

Fight2Win 151 is a submission-only grappling event taking place on Friday, September 11, 2020 in Dallas, TX, and streamed live on FloGrappling. Main Card starts at 9 PM EST.

Date: Friday, September 11, 2020

Location: Dallas, TX (Held at Gilley’s Complex and streamed live on FloGrappling)

Start Time: 9 PM EST (these matches will start after 9 PM EST for certain)

Betting Cut-off Time: 8PM EST

Main Event: 

Kennedy Maciel (-161) vs. Osvaldo “Queixinho” Moizinho (+115)

• Gi Match
• 10 Minutes

The main event of F2W151 features Kennedy Maciel taking on Queixinho. Queixinho has become somewhat of a F2W staple and has competed in almost every recent event. His opponent Kennedy Maciel is also a F2W veteran but it’s been a while since we’ve seen him on the F2W stage. Most people know that Kennedy’s father is the legendary competitor Rubens “Cobrinha” Maciel and fully expect him to follow in his father’s footsteps. Kennedy is also the current ADCC runner-up. This match with Queixinho however is in the GI where I believe Quexinho is at his best.

Kennedy is still very young at 23 years of age but he is the rightful favorite here based on his potential as well as his skill. Although Queixinho is an elite competitor, he does tend to struggle with top-tier competition. We will see if Kennedy is indeed a top-tier competitor and whether or not Queixinho’s vast competition experience will be enough to get the win. If Kennedy can avoid Queixinho’s dangerous omoplata attacks and guard game then I see him getting the win.

Kennedy Maciel -161 / 1.62 / 62% implied probability to win

Queixinho +115 / 2.15 / 47% implied probability to win

Prediction: Kennedy Maciel by judges’ decision.

Co-Main:

Rafael Lovato Jr. (-400) vs. Aaron “Tex” Johnson (+258)

• Gi Match
• 8 Minutes

The co-main event of F2W151 features Rafael Lovato Jr. taking on Tex Johnson. Lovato retired from MMA after an undefeated career which included capturing the Bellator title. Now it seems he is back to grappling and that is great news for fans. His opponent Tex Johnson is a polarizing figure in the jiu-jitsu community and is feared by many for his dangerous leg lock game. 

If this match were no-gi, the lines would be much tighter but in the gi Lovato should win comfortably IF he can avoid Tex Johnson’s leg locks. You don’t see many people finish straight Achilles locks in high-level competition but Tex is one of the few people who is known for it. Lovato has shown in the past that he can be vulnerable to leg locks (Rousimar Palhares) but that was way back in 2011, it was no-gi, and it was a heel hook. Heel hooks are not allowed in the gi under F2W rules. I see Lovato dominating position and eventually working his way into a submission. Tex has a path to victory but I believe it will be difficult to leg lock Lovato in the gi.

Rafael Lovato Jr. -400 / 1.25 / 80% implied probability to win

Tex Johnson +258 / 3.58 / 28% implied probability to win

Prediction: Lovato Jr. by submission in regulation.

Marcio Andre (+166) vs. Gabriel Arges (-238)

• Gi Match
• 8 Minutes

In a match featuring former gi world champions, Marcio Andre takes on Gabriel Arges. Marcio seems to be getting back into competition and is looking good but Gabriel will likely be his toughest test to date on the F2W stage.

Gabriel is the current gi black belt world champion and should be a much bigger fighter. Marcio’s recent performance was somewhat lackluster and even though he got the victory it was considered controversial by most. I see Gabriel winning by judges’ decision here.

Marcio Andre +166 / 2.66 / 38% implied probability to win

Gabriel Arges -238 / 1.42 / 70% implied probability to win

Prediction: Gabriel Arges by judges decision