Drawing the Line; Fight2Win 162 Betting Analysis

Fight2Win 162 is a submission-only grappling event taking place on Friday January 29, 2021 in Miami, FL and streamed live on FloGrappling.

Date: January 29, 2021 (Friday)

Location: Miami, FL (Streamed live on FloGrappling)

Start Time: 4PM EST

Betting Cut-off Time: 4PM EST


Hannette Staack (-145) vs Luanna Alzuguir (+115)

Prediction: All matches in this women’s only event will be NOGI. Hannette and Luanna are two of the most accomplished female grapplers of all time. This should be a good match and it will be interesting to see what game they choose to play without the GI. Both were active in their career in NOGI and GI competition with Hannette being 3x ADCC champion and Luanna being 1x ADCC champion with 1 silver and 1 bronze medal. Luanna is 5 years younger than the 41 year old Staack but I slightly favor Hannette here. This will be a close match.

Talita Alencar (-195) vs Gabrielle McComb (+155)

Prediction: Talita is going to be the smaller athlete here but she has far more experience in NOGI submission-only type matches. Talita is a veteran of EBI and has had many appearances at F2W, most recently losing a close split decision to Nathalie Ribeiro. Gabrielle is a very accomplished jiu-jitsu athlete as well but much of her accolades come in GI matches. My prediction is that Talita will win by decision.

Nathalie Ribeiro (-400) vs Tubby Alequin (+295)

Prediction: Nathalie Ribeiro is a big favorite here and is the current IBJJF NOGI World Champion. Check out her match at SUBVERSIV3 with Kendall Reusing if you want to be amazed. Despite being outweighed by 60+ pounds she was able to fight to a decision that many thought she won. Tubby Alequin will have her work cut out for her. I see Nathalie winning by submission or unanimous decision.

Ana Carolina Vieira (-135) vs Rafaela Guedes (-105)

Prediction: Ana Carolina is the sister of current UFC fighter and jiu-jitsu legend Rodolfo Viera. She is in her own right one of the top female competitors of her generation. Rafaela Guedes is a new black belt and other than Gaby Garcia, is the only other woman to defeat Elisabeth Clay at black belt. Guedes could be favored in this match and should have the size advantage as well. I consider Guedes the most live underdog on the card. I predict Ana Carolina winning by the decision but it would not surprise me if Rafaela were to win here. It should be close.

Erin Harpe (+120) vs Maggie Grindatti (-150)

Prediction: Not much is known about MMA fighter Erin Harpe in Grappling but the betting public seems to be high on her. Maggie Grindatti is one of the top female athletes out of FightSports and is 4-1 in F2W competition. This should be a competitive match but I have to favor the pure grappler here and I predict Maggie winning by decision.

Mara Romero Borella (+135) vs Brianne Robertson (-165)

Prediction: Mara is a UFC veteran and MMA fighter with a very strong top game. She has shown weaknesses in her submission defense. Brianne is one of 10th planet’s brightest up and coming competitors. She is a pure grappler who is still young and still making improvements. I predict Brianne to get the submission in regulation if she can avoid being overpowered here. Mara has the strength and experience advantage but under F2W rules, it will be hard for her to win without a finish.

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Coach Ben Z is a first-degree jiu-jitsu black belt, certified strength and conditioning specialist, and certified sports nutritionist. He is currently the head of the SCHOOL BJJ Association. Coach Ben has worked with athletes in the UFC, NHL, and Professional Boxing. He specializes in sports performance and weight cutting for competition.

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