Fight2Win 154 Betting Analysis

Fight2Win 154 is a submission-only grappling event taking place on Friday October 17, 2020 in Philadelphia, PA at the 2300 Arena and streamed live on FloGrappling. Main Card starts at 9PM EST.

Date: October 17, 2020
Location: Philadelphia, PA (Held at 2300 Arena and streamed live on FloGrappling)
Start Time: 9PM EST (these matches will start after 9PM EST)
Betting Cut-off Time: 8PM EST


Jon “Thor” Blank (-140) vs. Manuel Ribamar (+110)

8-minute N0-Gi match at 185lbs

In the main event Jon “Thor” Blank from 10th Planet takes on Manuel Ribamar from Unity Jiu-Jitsu. Both men are black belts and but only Ribamr competes both gi and no-gi. This is a no-gi match and Jon Blank is a NOGI and leg lock specialist. Under the F2W ruleset, Blank will have an advantage with a game that is more geared toward submissions. Ribamar will need to dominate position and avoid giving inside leg position to Blank who will constantly be looking to enter into leg locks. Blank also has a very good bottom armlock and arm-in guillotine attack,

Ribamar overall is a more experienced competitor but Blank may have more NOGI experience and is an ADCC veteran. Blank has more paths to victory as long and if he can stop Ribamar’s aggressive top passing game, he should get the victory. Ribamar, like many points-based competitors, will need to constantly avoid leg submissions.

Jon “Thor” Blank -140 / 1.71 / 58% implied win probability
Manuel Ribamar +110 / 2.1 / 48% implied win probability
Prediction: Jon Blank by submission

Nathiely De Jesus (-400) vs. Maria Malyjasiak (+325)

8-minute gi match at 170lbs

Nathiely has a win over Gabi Garcia under F2W rules and there is only a handful of women who have ever beaten Gabi Garcia under any ruleset.

Nathiely De Jesus -400 / 1.25 / 80% implied win probability
Maria Malyjasiak +325 / 4.25 / 24% implied win probability
Prediction: Nathiely De Jesus by submission.

Junny Ocasio (-365) vs. Jose Carlos Lima (+305)

8 minute NOGI match at 138lbs

Junny is on fire right now in no-gi competition and there is a chance here that Jose is outclassed. Junny should get the finish by leg lock in regulation.

Junny Ocasio -365 / 1.27 / 79% implied win probability
Jose Carlos Lima +305 / 4.05 / 25% implied win probability
Prediction: Junny Ocasio by submission

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Coach Ben Z is a first-degree jiu-jitsu black belt, certified strength and conditioning specialist, and certified sports nutritionist. He is currently the head of the SCHOOL BJJ Association. Coach Ben has worked with athletes in the UFC, NHL, and Professional Boxing. He specializes in sports performance and weight cutting for competition.

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