Who’s No. 1: Gordon Ryan vs Matheus Diniz – Betting Analysis

Who’s #1: Gordon Ryan vs Matheus Diniz is a submission-only grappling event taking place on Friday, October 2nd, 2020 in Dallas, TX, and streamed live on FloGrappling. 

Main Card starts at 8 PM EST. 

Date: Friday 10/2/20

Location: Austin, TX (streamed live only on FloGrappling)

Start Time: 8PM EST (these matches will start after 8PM EST)

Betting Cut-off Time: 7PM EST

  • Judging criteria for all matches that don’t end in submission in order of importance: 
  1. Compelling submission attempts 
  2. Positional dominance 
  3. Aggression 


 

Gordon Ryan (-550) vs. Matheus Diniz (+360)

  • 30 minutes sub-only

In the main event of Who’s #1, Gordon Ryan (DDS/Renzo Gracie) takes on Matheus Diniz (Marcelo Garcia) in the only 30-minute match of the event. Gordon is nicknamed the king for a reason and is currently the #1 ranked pound-for-pound NOGI grappler. He’s also the current ADCC 99kg and open-weight champion. Matheus is also a current ADCC champion at 88kg and a world champion in his own right. For Matheus to overcome Gordon in a sub-only match is going to take a flawless performance here. Gordon has only lost 1 submission-only match ever against a man who’s game shares very little similarities to Diniz (Felipe Pena). Diniz does possess a unique pressure passing game and we’ve seen him shut down the leg lock attacks of Gordon’s teammate Craig Jones in the past.

Matheus will be a huge underdog here and it will be interesting to see if he can find a path to victory. I see Gordon getting the submission by leg lock or choke from the back control. 

Gordon Ryan -550 / 1.18 / 85% implied win probability

Matheus Diniz +360 / 4.6 / 22% implied win probability

Prediction: Gordon Ryan by submission


Craig Jones (-180) vs. Roberto Jimenez (+145)

  • 15 minutes sub-only

Craig Jones (DDS/Renzo Gracie) takes on Roberto Jimenez (Studio76) in a match that is highly anticipated. Craig has shown some recently some chinks in his armor competing in another ruleset (SUG) and Roberto is improving every time we see him on the mats. If Roberto can avoid Craig’s leg entanglements and get to the back or catch a triangle, I can see Roberto winning here. He will have to pass Craig’s guard or attempt a flying submission though, which will be hard. Craig’s guard has always been solid and he rarely ever gets his guard passed.

Roberto is live here but Craig should be the favorite due to his resume and competition accolades. This is also a ruleset that favors Craig. I see him getting it done by leg lock in regulation. I believe his leg attack game is still superior to Roberto’s leg lock defense at this moment.

Craig Jones -180 / 1.56 / 64% implied win probability

Roberto Jimenez +145 / 2.55 / 41% implied win probability

Prediction: Craig Jones by submission


Gabi Garcia (-450) vs. Elisabeth Clay (+310)

  • 15 minutes sub-only

Gabi Garcia (Alliance) takes on Elisabeth Clay (Ares) in the women’s headliner. Gabi is a huge star and considered one of the greatest female grapplers of all time both GI and NOGI. She has dominated in competition for over a decade. Elisabeth Clay is an up and coming brown belt who has been on fire recently in sub-only competition. It will be a tough task for her but I can see a path to victory for her if she can keep Gabi from passing her guard while looking for leg locks. Elisabeth used this strategy to defeat Kendall Reusing in a sub-only match earlier this year. While Kendall is great, Gabi Garcia is another animal and an all-time great. 

Elisabeth will really have to overcome a large size disadvantage here but she’s been the underdog before. If Gabi does not have a solid understanding of the modern leg lock game she could find herself in trouble. But, the likely scenario is that someone as big as Gabi who plays mostly on her knees will eventually get the pass and finish with her favorite submission, the Americana from top.

Gabi Garcia -450 / 1.22 / 82% implied win probability

Elisabeth Clay +310 / 4.1 / 24% implied win probability

Prediction: Gabi Garcia by submission 


Kody Steele (+140) vs. Dante Leon (-160)

  • 15 minutes sub-only

Dante Leon (GF Team) takes on Kody Steele (Brazilian Fight Factory) in a match-up of similar and exciting styles. Between the two, Dante has been competing against the higher-level competition and has more experience at the black belt level. Kody however comes from a great competition team with solid training partners such as William Tackett (also on the card) as well as high-level coaches. 

There should be a lot of scrambles in this match and Dante should get it done by judges’ decision. I can also see Dante hitting a guillotine or arm-lock from a scramble as well. Kody is not an easy person to submit but he does tend to extend himself during scrambles and it is both his strength and his weakness. I see Dante getting the judges’ decision here he is the more seasoned grappler.

Kody Steele +140 / 2.4 / 42% implied win probability 

Dante Leon -160 / 1.63 / 63% implied win probability 

Prediction: Dante Leon by judges decision


Paulo Miyao (-165) vs. Geo Martinez (+130)

  • 15 minutes sub-only

Paulo Miyao (Cicero Costa) takes on Geo Martinez (10th Planet Freaks) in a re-match of KASAI. In their first match, Paulo won by points. Both Paulo and his brother Joao are notorious for not tapping to fully-locked submissions. This coupled with his impassable guard is going to make beating him by submission very difficult for Geo. Geo will have to constantly attack for compelling submission while avoiding losing position to get the win here. Paulo in recent years has also developed a very nice body lock passing system that we see him use frequently so we may see him play the top position as well. Geo is arguably 10th Planet’s most talented and accomplished grappler and he is live in this match-up. He will likely be more submission-oriented than Paulo, who looks more for positional control. The ruleset favors Geo but this all depends on whether he can put Paulo in submission danger.

Geo has a path to victory here but I see Paulo getting the nod from judges in this match-up.

Paulo Miyao -165 / 1.61 / 62% implied win probability 

Geo Martinez +130 / 2.3 / 44% implied win probability 

Prediction: Paulo Miyao by judges decision


Luiza Monteiro (+115) vs. Nathalie Ribeiro (-135)

  • 15 minutes sub only

Luiza Monteiro (Atos) takes on Nathalie Ribeiro (Checkmat). Luiza would be slightly favored in a GI match but in NOGI, Nathalie’s youth and aggressiveness should shine in this match. Luiza is a pioneer of women’s jiu-jitsu but Nathalie is the new generation. 

I see Nathalie winning by judges’ decision here.

Luiza Monteiro +115 / 2.15 / 47% implied win probability 

Nathalie Ribeiro -135 / 1.74 / 57% implied win probability 

Prediction: Nathalie Ribeiro by judges decision


 

Nicky Ryan (-800) vs. Tony Ramos (+500)

  • 15 minutes sub-only

Nicky Ryan (DDS/Renzo Gracie) takes on Tony Ramos who was an NCAA Champion and internationally ranked freestyle wrestler. This is certainly the oddest match-up on this card. Tony Ramos is a top-tier wrestler who is taking on Nicky in a ruleset that greatly favors the pure jiu-jitsu athlete. Anything can happen but the likely scenario is that Nicky is going to take the match into territories that Tony is unfamiliar with.

I see Nicky Ryan winning by leg lock or triangle here. 

Nicky Ryan -800 / 1.13 / 89% implied win probability 

Tony Ramos +500 / 6.0 / 17% implied win probability 

Prediction: Nicky Ryan by submission


William Tackett  (-155) vs Jason Rau (+125)

  • 15 minutes sub-only

William Tackett (Brazilian Fight Factory) takes on Jason Rau (DDS/Renzo Gracie) in the first match-up of the card. Jason Rau has been talked about as someone who has yet to show his true power in competition. A leg lock specialist, Rau will have to keep Tackett at distance and look for leg lock entries from the seated guard. Tackett is someone who always brings exciting matches. Still a brown belt, Tackett will have the youth and conditioning advantage.

Tackett should get it done by judges’ decision as long as he can avoid Rau’s dangerous leg lock game.

William Tackett -155 / 1.65 / 61% implied win probability 

Jason Rau +125 / 2.25 / 44% implied win probability

Prediction: William Tackett by judges decision

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Coach Ben Z is a first-degree jiu-jitsu black belt, certified strength and conditioning specialist, and certified sports nutritionist. He is currently the head of the SCHOOL BJJ Association. Coach Ben has worked with athletes in the UFC, NHL, and Professional Boxing. He specializes in sports performance and weight cutting for competition.

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