Fight2Win 149 – Betting Analysis

Fight2Win 149 is a submission-only grappling event taking place on Friday, August 14, 2020, in Austin, TX, and streamed live on FloGrappling. Main Card starts at 9 PM EST.


Main Event: Manuel Ribamar (-230) vs. Gabriel Almeida (+190)

  • 10 Minute Gi Match

The main event of F2W 149 features Manuel Ribamar of Unity (stepping in for inured Keenan Cornelius) taking on Gabriel Almeida from CheckMat. Both men are black belts and F2W Veterans.

Gabriel “was” an underdog to Keenan and he will be an underdog to Ribamar as well. They have faced each other 3 times and Ribamar is 3-0 in this match-up. However, Gabriel is live here and this match is a submission-only match with F2W rules so underdogs can win as long as they are not out-classed. Gabriel is one of CheckMat’s top competitors and has a very good 50/50 guard game. Ribamar is one of the most well-rounded GI competitors and has an aggressive and exciting game with excellent guard passing. This should be a back and forth match but I lean Ribamar here.

I predict Ribamar to get the win by judges’ decision. He should get the job done even though he is stepping in on 2 days notice. I give Manuel Ribamar an implied probability of 70% (-230) and Gabriel Almeida an implied probability of 35% (+190) to win.

Manuel Ribamar (-230) / 70% implied probability to win

Gabriel Almeida (+190) / 35% implied probability to win

Prediction: Manuel Ribamar by judges’ decision.


Co-Main: Jena Bishop (-115) vs Luiza Monteiro (+100)

  • 10 Minute Gi Match
  • For Women’s Featherweight Gi Title

The co-main event features Jena Bishop of Alliance taking on Luiza Monteiro of ATOS. Both women are black belts and this is a rematch from F2W 117 over a year ago where Jena won a judge’s decision.

I give a slight advantage to Jena here. She has a win over Luiza under the same ruleset and was the more active fighter in their last match. Luiza slowed down a bit in their last match and this match will be 2 minutes longer. I believe Jena is the better athlete between the two but Luiza is a pioneer of women’s jiu-jitsu and has all the tools needed to win. 

I predict Jena to win by judges’ decision. She was able to get the unanimous decision in their last match and I give Jena Bishop an implied probability of 54% and Luiza Monteiro an implied probability of 50% to win.

Jena Bishop (-115) / 54% implied probability to win

Luiza Monteiro (+100) / 50% implied probability to win

Prediction: Jena Bishop by judges decision.


Lucas Pinheiro (-110) vs Junny Ocasio (-120)

  • 10 Minute No-Gi Match
  • For Bantamweight No-Gi Title

In a featured matchup for the bantamweight no-gi title, Lucas Pinheiro of ATOS takes on June Ocasio of Unity.

I believe this is the most even matchup on the main card. Lucas Pinheiro has fought just about every single competitor in his weight division and should come into this match with an edge in experience. Junny Ocasio is an up-and-comer from Unity that has begun to make a name for himself as a high-level competitor.

I give a very slight advantage to Junny here because I do feel that he is a better no-gi competitor and his performance at KASAI shows that he can hang with the best in the world. Junny also comes from one of the most respected competition teams in the world and trains under legendary coach and competitor Murilo Santana. Lucas is now training in San Diego at ATOS HQ with ADCC Champion Andre Galvao but I’m not certain how long he has been there and it seems that he only recently started training with Professor Galvao.

I predict Junny to win by judges’ decision, but I think this is going to be a very close match. I give Junny Ocasio an implied probability of 55% (-120) and Lucas Pinheiro an implied probability of 52% to win.

Lucas Pinheiro (-110) / 52% implied probability to win

Junny Ocasio (-120) / 55% implied probability to win

Prediction: Junny Ocasio by judges’ decision.


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Coach Ben Z is a first-degree jiu-jitsu black belt, certified strength and conditioning specialist, and certified sports nutritionist. He is currently the head of the SCHOOL BJJ Association. Coach Ben has worked with athletes in the UFC, NHL, and Professional Boxing. He specializes in sports performance and weight cutting for competition.

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