Fight2Win 148 – Betting Analysis
Fight2Win 148 is a submission-only grappling event taking place on Friday July 24, 2020 in Austin, TX and streamed live on FloGrappling.
Main Event: Victor Hugo (-355) vs. Max Gimenis (+295)
The main event of F2W 148 is a GI match between Victor Hugo of Ribeiro Jiu-Jitsu and Max Gimenis of GF Team. Victor Hugo is a black belt under jiu-jitsu legends Saulo and Xande Ribeiro and is the current #1 ranked GI competitor in the world. Max Gimenis is a black belt under Julio Caesar and is the top super-heavyweight for GF Team. Both men are F2W veterans.
Victor has been on an absolute tear recently in competition, beating top-ranked competitor Felipe Andrew twice and former #1 ranked Nicholas Meregali in GI competition. He has also been dominant in NOGI competition, winning the NOGI World Championship in December of 2019. Max most recently competed at the Atlanta Winter Open submitting 4 opponents in the absolute division and taking gold.
I consider Victor to be the future of the sport and at 23 years old, he’s going to be at the top for a long time. Victor is a huge guy who can move like a lightweight and always seems to come out on top during scrambles. In my opinion he is similar to Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida with slightly less wrestling but more dangerous leg lock attacks. There are just so many ways for him to win and Max is going to have to overcome a lot to get the victory here. Max is a big and powerful guy who should not be underestimated but Victor’s speed and athleticism will be tough for him to deal with. This could go to judges decision but I predict Victor getting the submission in regulation. I give Victor Hugo an implied probability of 78% (-350) and Max Gimenis an implied probability of 25% (+295) to win. I think Victor is going to be too much for Max at this point. Max comes from a solid team (GF Team) but Victor is training regularly with Rafael Lovato Jr. and Xande Ribeiro. You can’t find better training partners than that.
Victor Hugo (-355) / 78% implied probability to win
Max Gimenis (+295) / 25% implied probability to win
Prediction: Victor Hugo by submission.
Co-Main: Keenan Cornelius (-380) vs Matheus Luna (+315)
The co-main event features a GI match between black belt and worm guard innovator Keenan Cornelius taking on rising star Matheus Luna from CheckMat. Keenan is a guy who needs no introduction to longtime fans and recently formed his own team, Legion American Jiu-Jitsu. Matheus is a new black belt and along with his twin brother Mathias, were both highly ranked competitors at the colored belts.
Keenan is rightfully a large favorite in this match-up. He has competed at the highest levels for a very long time and likely has more experience competing at black belt than Matheus has in his entire career. Keenan also faced Matheus’s brother Mathias at the European Open this year and won by rear-naked choke.
With that said, Matheus is young and can make large improvements in a short amount of time. Especially with the current pandemic situation, Keenan may be dealing with the struggles of running a business and may not have the training partners he is used to having since leaving Atos (his former team). Matheus should have no problems with training partners since he has his twin brother and the entire CheckMat team. Matheus has a shot here, but I predict Keenan to get the submission win in regulation. I give Keenan Cornelius an implied probability of 79% (-380) and Matheus Luna an implied probability of 24% (+315) to win. This should be an exciting match with lots of cool usage of the GI. Both have very creative styles that are fun to watch.
Keenan Cornelius (-380) / 79% implied probability to win
Matheus Luna (+315) / 24% implied probability to win
Prediction: Keenan Cornelius by submission.
Kendall Reusing (-300) vs Britney Elkin (+240)
In the featured NoGi match, black belt world champion Kendall Reusing of Gracie Barra takes on MMA fighter and brown belt Britney Elkin.
Kendall has won the IBJJF NOGI World Championship at every belt level including black belt and has always been a top competitor. Recently she fought and did well against the GOAT of the women’s division Gabi Garcia before losing by submission (Americana). Britney is an MMA fighter with lots of fighting experience. She has 9 professional and 2 amateur fights on her resume including a fight against Olympian Kayla Harrison in PFL. Britney will have to rely on her toughness to grind out a victory here but I see Kendall getting the job done by judges’ decision. I give Kendall Reusing an implied probability of 75% (-300) and Britney Elkin an implied probability of 29% (+240) to win.
Kendall Reusing (-300) / 75% implied probability to win
Britney Elkin (+240) / 29% implied probability to win
Prediction: Kendall Reusing by judges’ decision